Game:
Traditional Craps

Strategy
Family: Tunica Don’t Hedge Bets

Inception
date: 07-Dec-2010

My good
cousin Larry tells me that in Tunica, they allow multiple BUY DON'T bets to be
placed, and the house doesn't charge the vig unless you win the bet. Not only
that, he tell me that these bets can be taken down at any time, also without
paying the vig.

It occurred
to me that these guys are letting themselves open for a hedging strategy,
wherein the player can get onto a don't number without much risk. This is a
study of these strategies.

First, to
make things easy to understand don’t betting, I "normalized" the
bet ratios according to the Pythagoras way, so that we can use a fixed
don’t-pass bet and it will work for any number.

I can explain “normalized don’t-bet ratios” using right triangles and Pythagoras
... 3 - 4 - 5 ... what I've
been calling the "magic triangle" all these years when we played
together.

**Remember the Wizard of Oz? The
Scarecrow clearly stated:**

** **

“The square of the hypotenuse of a right triangle equals the sum of the squares of the other 2 sides.”

** **

**o****r something like that, but that’s what he meant.**

** **

**In craps, the house often offers “Stacked odds”, 3x on the 4 and 10, 4x
on the 5 and 9, and 5x on the 6 and 8. I see the numbers 3, 4, 5 as
representing Pythagoras: 3 squared = 9, 4 squared = 16, and 9 + 16 = 25, you
guessed it, 5 squared. But there are much deeper implications here that require
a thorough understanding of the mathematics of dice. **

This is a quote straight out of my
book!

The “mathematics of dice” results
from their cubed shape, providing a symmetric form with discrete landing areas,
which in turn provides random distribution of six discrete numbers. The cube is
truly a work of art, enacting transcription from translation… perfect!

Lets get
started with these 9 come-out roll bets:

**$100 buy the dont-4, dont-10**

**$75 buy the dont-5, dont-9**

**$60 buy the dont-6, dont-8**

**$10 yo 11**

**$50 don't pass line**

Note how the $60 6 and 8, the
$75 5 and 9, and the $100 4 and 10 bets are in the correct 3-4-5 ratios. **Doing so makes them all payout at $50. Get it?
Great Pyramids!!!**

** **

** **

**All of these bets, $530 in total, will be in action on the come-out
roll, and yet, the most we can loose in any given “session” (come-out roll to
resolution) is $135.**

** **

**On the come-out roll, we instantly win:**

** **

**·
****$220 on a
come-out-roll of 7**

**·
****$100 on a
come-out roll of 11**

**·
****$40 on a come-out roll of 2**

**·
****$40 on a come-out roll of 3**

** **

**We only loose $10 on a come-out roll of 12.**

** **

** **

(note that the orange “True Place Free
Lay” wager class is being used in this demo as buy-don’t bets)

(note how my system makes it easy
test a complex strategy like this; once I got the $530, 9-position bet
booked, I just stored it in "Push-Button" number 1)...

**Strategy is simple; on 2, 3, 7, 11,
or 12 just reset to the start bets. On any point number, remove all bets except
the don’t pass, and wait.**

OK, __starting with these
(above) bets on come-out rolls__, here are all the 36 possible roll
results, and what we make on average, For example, if a **3** is rolled, we
show the roll balance (**$40**), and multiply that by the number of
occurrences of 3s over all 36 roll combinations (**2**) to net (**$80**)
for all possible 3s:

** **

**Roll
3: $40 occurs
2 $80**

We will then sum up all possible
rolls and determine an average balance for the strategy. OK, Ready?

**Roll
12: -$10 occurs
1 -$10**

Here we loose the $10 yo, everything
else is a push:

**Roll 2:
$40 occurs 1 $40**

Here we loose the $10 yo and win
the $50 don’t-pass line.

**Roll 3:
$40 occurs 2 $80**

Here we loose the $10 yo and win the
$50 don’t -pass line.

**Roll 11:
$100 occurs 2 $200**

Here we win the $10 yo (pays at 15
to 1 = $150) and loose the $50 don’t-pass line.

**Roll
7: $220 occurs
6 $1320**

Here we make $50 on each number
= $300, minus the $50 don’t-pass line, minus the $10 yo, minus the vigs:

If vigs are $1 per $25 then $4 on the ($100) 4
and 10, $3 on the ($75) 5 and 9, and $3 on the ($60) 6 and 8, so
total vigs = $20

$300 - $50 - $10 - $20 = $220

(note I’m manually taking the $20
vig, so the actual roll balance is $220, not the $240 shown)

**Roll 4 or
10: -$85 occurs 6
-$510**

The $10 yo, and the $100 buy
dont-4 are both lost. The $50 don’t-pass line becomes the don’t pass for the
table's "On 4 Point", but this is a Northern Nevada style layout, so
it gets moved into the __Don’t Come 4__ by the dealer. So far we are down
$110 on this roll:

(note.. did you catch
this??? This is a Northern Nevada style layout and yet the 12 is the push
number, not the 2 like it’s really played in Northern Nevada. Just keepin’ yaz
on yer toes!!)

According to our strategy, we take
the other bets down and wait for the next roll...

If the next roll is a 7-out, then we win the $50 DC bet...

But if the next roll were instead
the 4, it’s a front line winner, but we loose the $50 DC bet...

In order to obtain an average we
need to dissect this a bit further...

Because there are 6 ways to roll a 7
and 3 ways to roll a 4 or 10, the payback is considered only over those 9
possibilities, hence once a dont-4 or dont-10 point is established, it will win
6 / 9 times, and is worth, on average, bet + bet * (1 - 3/6) = bet + bet * 1/2
= bet * 3/2.

We establish a $50 don't bet that on
average will payback (50 * 3/2) = $75, and we loose the $50
don’t-pass line, the $10 yo, and the $100 buy don’t:

$75 - $50 - $10 - $100 = -$85

**Roll 5. 9:
-$68.34 occurs 8 -$546.72**

Because there are 6 ways to roll a 7
and 4 ways to roll a 5 or 9, the payback is considered only over those 10
possibilities, hence once a 5 or 9 point is established, it is
worth, on average, bet + bet * (1 - 4/6) = bet + bet * 1/3
= bet * 4/3.

We establish a $50 bet that on
average will payback 50 + (50 * 4/3) = $66.66, and we loose the
$50 don’t-pass line, the $10 yo, and the $75 buy don’t:

$66.66 - $50 - $10 - $75 = -$68.34

** **

** **

**Roll 6, 8:
-$61.67 occurs 10
-$616.70**

Because there are 6 ways to roll a 7
and 5 ways to roll a 6 or 8, the payback is considered only over
those 11 possibilities, hence once a 6 or 8 point
is established, it is worth, on average, bet + bet * (1 - 5/6) = bet
+ bet * 1/6 = bet * 7/6.

We establish a $50 bet that on
average will pay back (50 * 7/6) = $58.33, and we loose the $50 don’t-pass
line, the $10 yo, and the $60 buy don’t:

$58.33 - $50 - $10 - $60 =
-61.67

__Summarizing…__

__ __

__ __

**Roll
12: -$10
occurs 1 -$10**

**Roll 2:
$40
occurs 1 $40**

**Roll 3:
$40
occurs 2 $80**

**Roll 11: $100 occurs 2
$200**

**Roll
7: $220 occurs 6
$1320**

**Roll 4 or
10: -$85 occurs 6
-$510**

**Roll 5 or 9: -$68.34 occurs 8
-$546.72**

**Roll 6 or 8: -$61.67 occurs 10
-$616.70**

__ __

__ __

**BOTTOM LINES:**

** **

**-$43.42 over all 36 numbers.**

** **

**The average cost of this bet per
come-out roll =**

** **

**$1.02.**

** **

**The average risk factor per number =**

** **

**($1.02 / $530) * 100 = 0.19 PERCENT.**

** **

**The overall risk for these bets
across all numbers =**

** **

**(-$43.42 / $530) * 100 = -8.1 %**

** **

**Compare this to the risk per number
for “straight” don-t-pass line bets per number: **

** **

**-1.4 %**

__ __

Please check out these numbers when
you get a chance.

HOWEVER!!

This strategy allows us to establish
a don’t number, which we can then use for further betting:

If the don’t number is the 4, 9, or
10, we can make FIELD bets that actually allow us an advantage over the house.

And so, the strategy now becomes the
above, except if the number is 4, 9, or 10, then add field bets CONTINUOUSLY
while the don’t number is on. The thing here is, these 2 bets will push each
other, keeping you from loosing both of them, but for an indeterminate amount
of rolls, you will WIN most field bets until this push happens! Especially the
2 and 12, they start payin out really sweet!

OK!! I will work out a computer
simulation for you real soon...

And remember,

**The hard ways always work unless you call them
off!!!!**

Marty

Discflicker.com