Game: Traditional Craps

Strategy Family: Tunica Donít Hedge Bets

Inception date: 07-Dec-2010

 

My good cousin Larry tells me that in Tunica, they allow multiple BUY DON'T bets to be placed, and the house doesn't charge the vig unless you win the bet. Not only that, he tell me that these bets can be taken down at any time, also without paying the vig.

 

It occurred to me that these guys are letting themselves open for a hedging strategy, wherein the player can get onto a don't number without much risk. This is a study of these strategies.

 


 

First, to make things easy to understand donít betting, I "normalized" the bet ratios according to the Pythagoras way, so that we can use a fixed donít-pass bet and it will work for any number.

 

I can explain ďnormalized donít-bet ratiosĒ using right triangles and Pythagoras ... 3 - 4 - 5 ... what I've been calling the "magic triangle" all these years when we played together.

 

Remember the Wizard of Oz? The Scarecrow clearly stated: 

 

ďThe square of the hypotenuse of a right triangle equals the sum of the squares of the other 2 sides.Ē

 

or something like that, but thatís what he meant.

 

In craps, the house often offers ďStacked oddsĒ, 3x on the 4 and 10, 4x on the 5 and 9, and 5x on the 6 and 8. I see the numbers 3, 4, 5 as representing Pythagoras: 3 squared = 9, 4 squared = 16, and 9 + 16 = 25, you guessed it, 5 squared. But there are much deeper implications here that require a thorough understanding of the mathematics of dice.

 

This is a quote straight out of my book!

 

The ďmathematics of diceĒ results from their cubed shape, providing a symmetric form with discrete landing areas, which in turn provides random distribution of six discrete numbers. The cube is truly a work of art, enacting transcription from translationÖ perfect!

 

 


 

 

Lets get started with these 9 come-out roll bets:

$100 buy the dont-4, dont-10

$75  buy the dont-5, dont-9

$60  buy the dont-6, dont-8

$10 yo 11

$50 don't pass line

Note how the $60 6 and 8, the $75 5 and 9, and the $100 4 and 10 bets are in the correct 3-4-5 ratios. Doing so makes them all payout at $50. Get it? Great Pyramids!!!

 

 

All of these bets, $530 in total, will be in action on the come-out roll, and yet, the most we can loose in any given ďsessionĒ (come-out roll to resolution) is $135.

 

On the come-out roll, we instantly win:

 

         $220 on a come-out-roll of 7

         $100 on a come-out roll of 11

         $40†† on a come-out roll of 2

         $40†† on a come-out roll of 3

 

We only loose $10 on a come-out roll of 12.


 

 

 

 

(note that the orange ďTrue Place Free LayĒ wager class is being used in this demo as buy-donít bets)

 

(note how my system makes it easy test a complex strategy like this; once I got the $530, 9-position bet booked, I just stored it in "Push-Button" number 1)...

 


 

Strategy is simple; on 2, 3, 7, 11, or 12 just reset to the start bets. On any point number, remove all bets except the donít pass, and wait.

 

OK,  starting with these (above) bets on come-out rolls, here are all the 36 possible roll results, and what we make on average, For example, if a 3 is rolled, we show the roll balance ($40), and multiply that by the number of occurrences of 3s over all 36 roll combinations (2) to net ($80) for all possible 3s:

 

Roll 3:        $40    occurs 2    $80

 

We will then sum up all possible rolls and determine an average balance for the strategy. OK, Ready?

 

Roll 12:     -$10    occurs 1    -$10

 

Here we loose the $10 yo, everything else is a push:

 

 


 

Roll 2:        $40    occurs 1    $40

 

Here we loose the $10 yo and win the $50 donít-pass line.

 

 


 

Roll 3:        $40    occurs 2    $80

 

Here we loose the $10 yo and win the $50 donít -pass line.

 

 


Roll 11:    $100    occurs 2    $200

 

Here we win the $10 yo (pays at 15 to 1 = $150) and loose the $50 donít-pass line.

 

 


 

Roll 7:       $220   occurs 6    $1320

 

Here we make $50 on each number = $300, minus the $50 donít-pass line, minus the $10 yo, minus the vigs:

 

If vigs are $1 per $25 then $4 on the ($100) 4 and 10, $3 on the ($75) 5 and 9, and $3 on the ($60) 6 and 8, so total vigs = $20

 

$300 - $50 - $10 - $20 = $220

 

 

(note Iím manually taking the $20 vig, so the actual roll balance is $220, not the $240 shown)

 

Roll 4 or 10:     -$85    occurs 6    -$510

 

The $10 yo, and the $100 buy dont-4 are both lost. The $50 donít-pass line becomes the donít pass for the table's "On 4 Point", but this is a Northern Nevada style layout, so it gets moved into the Donít Come 4 by the dealer. So far we are down $110 on this roll:

 

 

 

(note.. did you catch this??? This is a Northern Nevada style layout and yet the 12 is the push number, not the 2 like itís really played in Northern Nevada. Just keepiní yaz on yer toes!!)

 


 

According to our strategy, we take the other bets down and wait for the next roll...

 


If the next roll is a 7-out, then we win the $50 DC bet...

 

 


 

But if the next roll were instead the 4, itís a front line winner, but we loose the $50 DC bet...

 

 

In order to obtain an average we need to dissect this a bit further...

 

Because there are 6 ways to roll a 7 and 3 ways to roll a 4 or 10, the payback is considered only over those 9 possibilities, hence once a dont-4 or dont-10 point is established, it will win 6 / 9 times, and is worth, on average, bet + bet * (1 - 3/6) = bet + bet * 1/2 = bet * 3/2.

 

We establish a $50 don't bet that on average will payback (50 * 3/2)  = $75, and we loose the $50 donít-pass line, the $10 yo, and the $100 buy donít:

 

$75 - $50 - $10 - $100 = -$85

 


 

Roll 5. 9:    -$68.34    occurs    8    -$546.72

 

Because there are 6 ways to roll a 7 and 4 ways to roll a 5 or 9, the payback is considered only over those 10 possibilities, hence once a 5 or 9 point is established, it is worth, on average, bet + bet * (1 - 4/6) = bet + bet * 1/3 =  bet * 4/3.

 

We establish a $50 bet that on average will payback 50 +  (50 * 4/3) = $66.66, and we loose the $50 donít-pass line, the $10 yo, and the $75 buy donít:

 

$66.66 - $50 - $10 - $75 = -$68.34

 

 

 

Roll 6, 8:    -$61.67    occurs    10    -$616.70

 

Because there are 6 ways to roll a 7 and 5 ways to roll a 6 or 8, the payback is considered only over those 11 possibilities, hence once a 6 or 8 point is established, it is worth, on average, bet + bet * (1 - 5/6) = bet + bet * 1/6 = bet * 7/6.

 

We establish a $50 bet that on average will pay back (50 * 7/6) = $58.33, and we loose the $50 donít-pass line, the $10 yo, and the $60 buy donít:

 

$58.33 - $50 - $10 - $60 = -61.67

 


 

SummarizingÖ

 

 

Roll 12:     †††† -$10    ††† occurs †††† 1   -$10

Roll 2:        †† $40    †††† occurs †††† 1    $40

Roll 3:        †† $40    †††† occurs †††† 2†††† $80

Roll 11:    ††††† $100    ††† occurs †††† 2    $200

Roll 7:       ††† $220  ††††† occurs †††† 6    $1320

Roll 4 or 10:     -$85    ††† occurs †††† 6    -$510

Roll 5 or 9:    -$68.34    occurs †††† 8    -$546.72

Roll 6 or 8:    -$61.67    occurs †††† 10    -$616.70

 

 

BOTTOM LINES:

 

-$43.42 over all 36 numbers.

 

The average cost of this bet per come-out roll =

 

$1.02.

 

The average risk factor per number =

 

($1.02 / $530) * 100 = 0.19 PERCENT.

 

The overall risk for these bets across all numbers =

 

(-$43.42 / $530) * 100 = -8.1 %

 

Compare this to the risk per number for ďstraightĒ don-t-pass line bets per number:

 

-1.4 %

 

 

Please check out these numbers when you get a chance.

HOWEVER!!

 

This strategy allows us to establish a donít number, which we can then use for further betting:

If the donít number is the 4, 9, or 10, we can make FIELD bets that actually allow us an advantage over the house.

 

And so, the strategy now becomes the above, except if the number is 4, 9, or 10, then add field bets CONTINUOUSLY while the donít number is on. The thing here is, these 2 bets will push each other, keeping you from loosing both of them, but for an indeterminate amount of rolls, you will WIN most field bets until this push happens! Especially the 2 and 12, they start payin out really sweet!

 

OK!! I will work out a computer simulation for you real soon...

 

 

 

 

 

 

And remember,

 

 

The hard ways always work unless you call them off!!!!

 

 

 

 

 

 

Marty

Discflicker.com